 There is a chance for ICE ACCUMULATION next week!
As you can probably tell, the chances are VERY low right now due to a high amount of uncertainty. What we do know is that the temps will dive into the 30s and low 40s for highs next week, with lows in the 20s and 30s. Precipitation chances range from 40-70% from Monday through Thursday. The biggest questions are: How cold will the temps be aloft compared to the surface? For freezing rain to accumulate ice, we need temps at the surface at or below 32 degrees. We could end up with temps around 33-38 degrees and have just rain or non-accumulating sleet. This map represents your CHANCE of a glaze of ice accumulation or greater, which would be caused by freezing rain. At this time, we are keeping % chances lower than others as there is still a lot of uncertainty. Also, there is a low chance for snow, but that is (also) very uncertain. If that were to occur, it'd have to happen when this system moves out on Thursday. Lots of question marks, but I wanted to give you all a heads up about whats in store for next week. Stay tuned!  Biggest and most notable changes:
- 2-6” area introduced. Higher confidence for up to 6” exists if enough heavy snow falls. - 0-2” added to NW metroplex. Big shift to the south and slight shift to the east. This means that there could be NOTHING to 2”. - Flurries/isolated coating area shifted slightly further south Other minor changes include an introduced 1-3” region. ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE ROADWAYS IN NORTH TEXAS, unless you are in FAR Northwestern North Texas. WATCH THE FULL FORECAST HERE: https://youtu.be/3OUFq7yNQUc  Here is my latest snow accumulation forecast for Tuesday. The best chance for snow accumulation has remained NW of the metroplex, with some areas having the possibility for 2-4", with isolated amounts higher. Meanwhile, the metroplex may get lucky with an isolated dusting. Roadways are NOT expected to see snow accumulation in most of North Texas due to surface temps likely staying just above freezing during the day Tuesday.
Computer models have continued to estimate upwards of 4-8" of snow in far NW North Texas and even 0-2" near the metroplex, but I am continuing to keep my forecast conservative due to surface temp uncertainty. In addition to that, this January has been quite warm, so the ground is naturally warmer. Stay tuned as I continue to refine the forecast.  Here is my latest snow accumulation forecast for Tuesday. The best chance for snow accumulation has remained NW of the metroplex, with some areas having the possibility for 2-4", with isolated amounts higher. Meanwhile, the metroplex may get lucky with an isolated dusting. Roadways are NOT expected to see snow accumulation in most of North Texas due to surface temps likely staying just above freezing during the day Tuesday.
Computer models have continued to estimate upwards of 4-8" of snow in far NW North Texas and even 0-2" near the metroplex, but I am continuing to keep my forecast conservative due to surface temp uncertainty. In addition to that, this January has been quite warm, so the ground is naturally warmer. Stay tuned as I continue to refine the forecast.  The National Weather Service in Fort Worth, Texas, has confirmed at least 14 tornadoes from December 13th, 2022's tornado outbreak. This marks the most tornadoes that we've seen in the month of December since December 2006, which had 23 tornadoes. The most recent tornado outbreak in North Texas during the month of December was December 2015, which 12 tornadoes occurred. At this time, there have been no reports of injuries. Below are ALL of the tornadoes that have been confirmed, in addition to a map made from the National Weather Service. TORNADOES CONFIRMED: as of 12/14/22 at 6:30pm CST Location: S. Decatur, TX County: Wise County EF Category: EF-2 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 125 MPH Length/Distance: Long-tracked tornado (Specifics TBD) Location: Blue Ridge, SW of Bonham County: Collin into Fannin County EF Category: EF-2 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 125 MPH Length/Distance: Long-tracked tornado (Specifics TBD) Location: Ranger County: Eastland County EF Category: EF-2 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 MPH Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: West of Paris County: Lamar County EF Category: EF-2 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 MPH Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: South of Santo County: Palo Pinto County EF Category: EF-1 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 MPH Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: Bluff Dale County: Erath County EF Category: EF-1 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: Unknown (TBD) Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: Wolfe City County: Hunt County into Extreme Southern Fannin County EF Category: EF-1 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: Callisburg, NE of Gainesville County: Cooke County EF Category: EF-0 Tornado Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH Length/Distance: Specifics TBD Location: Grapevine, West of Fort Worth, North of Fort Worth, Sansom Park, and many other locations on the map below TORNADO COUNT: 6 Separate Tornadoes County: Tarrant County EF Category: 2x EF-0, 4x EF-1 Maximum Sustained Winds: TBD Length/Distance: Specifics TBD The photo below shows the NWS map of the tornadoes that happened yesterday. Two are still being surveyed.  |