 Here is our WINTER SNOWFALL FORECAST for North Texas!
An EL NINO winter is right around the corner, which promotes above normal precipitation and below normal temps for Texas! The last MODERATE-STRONG El Nino that we had was in 2010, where DFW saw 17.8" OF SNOW! Now, I don't anticipate THAT much snow this winter. In fact, there is definitely a chance that North Texas DOESN'T see much snow. Over the past two decades, Moderate-Strong-Very Strong El Nino years have promoted mostly small amounts of snowfall, aside from 2010 and 2003. Additionally, this will likely be a "STRONG" El Nino. Out of the FIVE "STRONG" El Nino years that we have had, we've seen an average of 3.1" of snow in those winters. Two of those winters, DFW has less than 1" of snow. Three of those winters ranged from 3-8" (the bulk of the "average" presented above). More than anything, this is our official prediction for this winter! I will make some minor tweaks to it as we approach December and repost it with those. Either way, I DO think we will see some snow across North Texas, with the HIGHEST probabilities in NW North Texas, and the LOWEST probabilities of snow in Southern North Texas. *For clarity, <1" does not mean you will see 0.1-1" of snow. That means anywhere from 0-1". And again, this is a prediction, so it might or might not happen. It will be interesting to look back at this and see how wrong or right I am  Significant icing is possible due to freezing rain. Total ice accumulations will likely range from 0.10-0.25", especially on elevated surfaces and bridges. Some sleet will be possible. This will all begin Monday afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning. Tuesday will have the most significant travel impacts. DO NOT TRAVEL ON TUESDAY IF AT ALL POSSIBLE!  Here is YOUR chance of seeing at least a GLAZE OF ICE on Tuesday morning. It is very likely across most of North Texas (70-90% chance in this region). Lower chances the further east you go. Sulphur Springs is in the "Possible" region (40-60% chance), and then unlikely just a hair to the west of Tyler (<30%).
We will be posting updates a bunch on our social media pages. Follow us here: linktr.ee/ntxweathercenter  Credit: Holly Graves This beautiful halo was spotted in Rosston, TX, at around 3:30pm this afternoon. The photo was captured by one of our viewers, Holly Graves. What is a "halo"? Halos are usually a ring of light that forms around the sun. The sun refracts off ice crystals that are present in the thin cirrus clouds. The halo is usually very bright, and occasionally have color. Have you seen a halo before? Let us know on Facebook! Find out MORE on the ICE STORM that will be impacting North Texas soon below:  There is a chance for ICE ACCUMULATION next week! An arctic blast will blast the Great Plains heading into next week. A southwesterly flow will cause issues for Texas. This will lead to a low pressure system developing, which could bring all types of precipitation. What we almost know for certain is that the high temps will dive into the 30s and low 40s for most of next week. Lows in the 20s and 30s will be possible. Precipitation chances range from 40-80% from Monday through Thursday. The biggest questions are: How cold will the temps be aloft compared to the surface? For freezing rain to accumulate ice, we need temps at the surface at or below 32 degrees. We could end up with temps around 33-38 degrees and have just rain or non-accumulating sleet. This map represents your CHANCE of a glaze of ice accumulation or greater, which would be caused by freezing rain. The HIGHEST chance for ice accumulation is expected to be north and west of the metroplex. The best timeframe for any ice is currently Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. Also, there is a low chance for snow, but that is (also) very uncertain. If that were to occur, it'd have to happen when this system moves out on Thursday. Lots of question marks, but I wanted to give you all a heads up about whats in store for next week. Stay tuned with North Texas Weather Center!  Credit: Michael Cox Many Texas Residents went out to their lunch break witnessing holes in the thin layer of cirrocumulus clouds today. Are these UFOs? Nope! In fact, this is a RARE weather phenomenon called "fallstreak hole". Otherwise referred to as a punch cloud, sky punch, or even jellyfish. These holes are rare because you need the right atmospheric conditions for them to occur.  Credit: Katelyn Kyle These clouds are typically circular or elliptical. They are most common among cirrocumulus and altocumulus clouds. Fallstreak holes develop from supercooled water evaporating or freezing in the clouds. Due to how rare these holes are, some people have mistaken them as UFOs.
The photo shown above was taken near San Antonio, Texas. Did you any fallstreak holes today? Let us know on Facebook! |